Alerts
Active and historical risk diagnostics with metric evidence.
Active Alerts
| Severity | Date | Title | Layer | Entity | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warning | Data center debt issuance accelerated Data center debt issuance accelerated, raising the share of AI infrastructure funded by capital markets rather than operating cash flow. | Capital Markets / Funding / Valuation | Data Center Debt Issuance | ||
| Watch | Paid user growth decelerated for multiple periods Paid user growth has decelerated for at least two consecutive periods. | AI Applications and Model Monetization | Perplexity | ||
| Warning | Token unit economics turned negative Estimated revenue per token is below estimated cost per token, indicating pressure on model monetization. | AI Applications and Model Monetization | Anthropic | ||
| Watch | AI usage is not keeping pace with paid revenue Usage growth is materially ahead of paid AI revenue growth, so monetization quality is lagging adoption. | Enterprise Spending and AI ROI | ServiceNow | ||
| Warning | AI adoption rose while net revenue retention weakened Reported AI adoption is not preventing weaker expansion or churn signals. | Enterprise Spending and AI ROI | Salesforce | AI Attach Rate: 24 | |
| Warning | Grid interconnection delays increased materially Grid delays increased while AI infrastructure demand remains high, raising schedule and cost risk. | Data Center / Power / Infrastructure | Power Utilities | ||
| Watch | Low-PE Bubble Watch: normalized valuation is above sector median Reported PE looks inexpensive, but normalized PE is above the sector median, indicating possible peak-earnings distortion. | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | NVIDIA | ||
| Watch | Backlog quality deteriorated Backlog quality weakened, so headline backlog may overstate durable revenue visibility. | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Broadcom | ||
| Warning | Semiconductor margins are extreme while inventory is rising Gross margin is above the 90th historical percentile and inventory days increased quarter over quarter. | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | NVIDIA | Inventory Days Change: 28.15 | |
| Warning | Hyperscaler CapEx spread exceeded threshold CapEx growth exceeded cloud revenue growth by more than 25 percentage points, raising overbuild risk relative to visible monetization. | Hyperscaler CapEx and Cloud ROI | Alphabet | ||
| Warning | Hyperscaler CapEx spread exceeded threshold CapEx growth exceeded cloud revenue growth by more than 25 percentage points, raising overbuild risk relative to visible monetization. | Hyperscaler CapEx and Cloud ROI | Amazon | ||
| Warning | Hyperscaler CapEx spread exceeded threshold CapEx growth exceeded cloud revenue growth by more than 25 percentage points, raising overbuild risk relative to visible monetization. | Hyperscaler CapEx and Cloud ROI | Microsoft | ||
| Warning | Hyperscaler CapEx spread exceeded threshold CapEx growth exceeded cloud revenue growth by more than 25 percentage points, raising overbuild risk relative to visible monetization. | Hyperscaler CapEx and Cloud ROI | Oracle | ||
| Warning | Semiconductor margins are extreme while inventory is rising Gross margin is above the 90th historical percentile and inventory days increased quarter over quarter. | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Broadcom | Inventory Days Change: 9.44 | |
| Watch | Consumer spending rose while real income weakened Real disposable income declined while consumer spending rose and revolving credit accelerated. | Consumer and Labor Income | Retail Demand |