Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain
Tracks whether upstream AI hardware profits are sustainable or peak-cycle earnings.
Layer Health Score
69
Current strength from layer metric scores weighted by data confidence.
Layer Stress Buffer
10
How much cushion this layer has against overheating and deterioration signals. Higher means more room.
Layer Data Confidence
44
Freshness, estimate labeling, and source coverage for this layer.
Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain Trend
Positive Drivers
Gross Margin Historical Percentile+15.0
NVIDIAChange 21.27SEC Company Facts: NVIDIA CORP gross margin history
Backlog Quality Score+14.4
TSMCChange 4Company filings seed fixture
Inventory Days Change+13.0
TSMCChange -2Company filings seed fixture
Negative Drivers
Reported PE vs Normalized PE-15.8
NVIDIAChange 1Valuation model seed fixture
Gross Margin Historical Percentile-13.8
NVIDIAChange 21.27SEC Company Facts: NVIDIA CORP gross margin history
Inventory Days Change-12.2
NVIDIAChange 15.37SEC Company Facts: NVIDIA CORP inventory-days proxy
Layer Metrics
| Metric | Layer | Direction | Weight | Latest | Data Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI/Data Center Revenue Growth | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Higher is better | 0.18 | 29.47 | 0Estimated |
| Gross Margin Historical Percentile | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Higher is better | 0.22 | 92.13 | 30 |
| Inventory Days Change | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Lower is better | 0.18 | 9.44 | 0Estimated |
| Backlog Quality Score | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Higher is better | 0.2 | 42 | 70Estimated |
| Reported PE vs Normalized PE | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Lower is better | 0.22 | 1 | 72 |
Layer Alerts
| Severity | Date | Title | Layer | Entity | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watch | Low-PE Bubble Watch: normalized valuation is above sector median Reported PE looks inexpensive, but normalized PE is above the sector median, indicating possible peak-earnings distortion. | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | NVIDIA | ||
| Watch | Backlog quality deteriorated Backlog quality weakened, so headline backlog may overstate durable revenue visibility. | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Broadcom | ||
| Warning | Semiconductor margins are extreme while inventory is rising Gross margin is above the 90th historical percentile and inventory days increased quarter over quarter. | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | NVIDIA | Inventory Days Change: 28.15 | |
| Warning | Semiconductor margins are extreme while inventory is rising Gross margin is above the 90th historical percentile and inventory days increased quarter over quarter. | Semiconductor and Hardware Supply Chain | Broadcom | Inventory Days Change: 9.44 |